Why PhiBase does not have a refund policy
The equity curve of any trading strategy will never be smooth for the simple reason that no strategy can guarantee 100% success rate. If any backtest show a linear equity curve it most certainly is suspect and will need detailed investigation to validate its results. Although the equity curve moves up and down, a good system profits by its ability to have an edge in having comparatively larger upward movements. Ray Scalper has a definite edge to being profitable this way.
The illustration here shows how the equity movement graph is plotted. Every upmove of the equity is plotted as a green bar. The size of the bar reflects the equity gain from the last low. The equity direction changes when there is a movement of atleast 3% in the opposite direction. When the equity down move is completed it is plotted as a red bar with size corresponding the drop in equity from its previous high. So the graph below shows the size of every up-down movement recorded by the equity curve. The equity move is shown for Ray Scalper EA, but the same would be true for Synergy EA or any other trading system.
This presents a very important concept clearly which will help in trading any system live. Our mind does not register these small drawdowns that are seen when studying the backtest equity curves. But these drawdowns are part of every strategy and considered normal.
Someone may start trading during one of the up moves and record gains right from the start. Some others may have started when the equity curve was just about to or when it is moving down. In this case the user may go into drawdown initially. It would not be possible for judging the EA based on these initial set of gaining or losing trades.
Synergy has a very good distribution of gaining phases. The losing phases are smaller than the gaining phases. It can be see that irrespective of the period of starting the EA, the account will not be in DD for long on a monthly basis. There is higher probability of getting started on a gaining phase than a losing streak due to the higher success rate of the EA.
The following chart shows the 13 year backtest returns split into a monthly gain chart.
The EA has more gaining months (95) compared to losing months (61). The average of gaining months is over 7% and that of all th losing months is under 4%. We also see that a losing month is followed by a stomg set of winning months. Very few consecutive losing months are seen, but must be expected in future also. The recovery from DD from such periods is seen to be quick. The maximum loss seen in a month is about 16% and the maximum gaining month brought in about 43%. Users will need to set the risk level based their level of comfort - A single losing month of 16% should not force the user to stop trading the EA. If you are not comfortable with such DD level or % loss in equity, the Max Allocation should be set to lower levels (8 or 5).
Profits are seen in almost all kinds of market conditions seen over the years - Synergy V4 can be expected to perform reasonably well in future since it can handle most price actions well.
If you find our refund policy to be deterrent in making you purchase decision, we recommend you to study the Statistical Analysis presented on this site. Some traders claim refund on seeing some losses in the account, while this would just be a normal drawdown and part-parcel of the strategy. Such refund policies actually cause more harm to traders by making them opt for a refund instead of continuing to run the EA. Purchase decisions are made without fully understanding the strategy and with expectation from the system. In most cases the trader loses money because they stop the EA the while in DD and miss the recovery.
We want to see our products work successfully on our member accounts. This is only possible when the user has good understanding and confidence in the product. We aim to increase your confidence in our products by providing technical reports, detailed analysis, factual information, transparency and good support. The refund policy is mostly a marketing gimmick to enable the prospective buyer to jump in without any delay. PhiBase will not follow such methods to sell our products - We will instead trust our development efforts, information and performance to convince you to take a well educated decision.